Having international assignees in harm’s way is the nightmare of many companies. While they are not directly in charge of risk management and evacuation procedures, HR teams can find themselves playing a key role in case of emergencies. Unexpected political upheaval and brutal economic changes can dramatically impact assignees' quality of living as well as their purchasing power (cost of living).
Security issues matter for international assignees, and according to the participants of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) that has taken place on 16-18 February, 2018, it will be a year of major risks and uncertainties.
Each year, the conference brings together more than 450 senior decision-makers from around the world, including heads-of-state, ministers, leading personalities of international and non-governmental organizations, as well as high ranking representatives of industry, media, academia, and civil society, to engage in an intensive debate on current and future security challenges.
This year’s MSC conference took place amid a tense international geopolitical context and a multiplication of regional crises. As the Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, comments in the 2018 Munich Security Report: "2018 promises to be a year where some of these crises might either move towards resolution or escalation – with potentially catastrophic consequences. We must do whatever we can to move away from the brink."
After years of progress, is global mobility being threatened by geopolitical headwinds?
Some of the main risks discussed at the conference included:
- The erosion of the international order, norms, and institutions established at the end of the Second World War – an erosion resulting from rise of new geopolitical actors as well as the uncertainties about America’s increasing unilateralism and rejection of the institutions it has helped create. Less order, fewer international norms, and a weakening of international institutions mean more risk of escalations and missteps that could trigger conflicts.
- This geopolitical uncertainty goes hand in hand with renewed attacks on rule of law and independence of the judiciary and freedom of press coming not only from authoritarian states but also from political actors in Europe and America.
- While the global economic growth remains robust, new forms of protectionism could accelerate the end of the current economic growth cycle. Currency fluctuations (USD weakening) as well as anxiety about interest rates’ increases are signs of the nervousness of the economic actors globally.
- From a technology perspective, the potential rise of autonomous weapons and more generally the faster response time required by modern weapon systems increase the risk of accidental escalation. Cybersecurity has become a major concern for companies and employees’ data privacy is at risk from the actions of criminal and government-sponsored hackers.
- Environmental issues influence security issues: pollution is one of the major causes of death globally and is weighing on the political debate while extreme weather events such as drought fuel local conflicts and increase migratory pressure.
Here is a non-exhaustive list of zones of tensions and potential risks around the globe.
Africa
The economic growth has been on the upswing in many African countries in 2017 and should not hide the daunting challenges that the continent still faces. Revenue from oil, the backbone of several African economies, has been steadily declining. Demographic vitality, a potential source of growth in the future, could cause unrest in the short term as governments fail to equally share the benefits of economic growth.
Libya, Somalia, and South Sudan are being ripped apart by civil wars aggravated by the actions of jihadist groups and the impact of drought on collapsing economies.
The Sahel region is destabilized by poor security and political governance. Nebulous terrorist groups spread their actions from Mali and Niger to Chad and as far north as Nigeria and Burkina Faso.
Inadequate governance continue to plague many countries and orderly changes of power are rare in the region as exemplified by the recent coup to oust Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe.
Middle East
The Middle East is still a hotbed of instability: 8 of 10 most lethal conflicts in 2017 took place in the region.
The ongoing war in Syria and part of Iraq threatens to destabilize neighboring countries such as Lebanon or triggers an escalation between Israel and its neighbors.
Ongoing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran as well as the American president’s statements challenging the validity of the nuclear deal could further inflame the situation in the region and open the door to nuclear proliferation.
Qatar has faced a sea, air, and land blockade following political tensions with its neighbors. The blockade did not completely sever the flow of supplies to Qatar and ultimately has had limited impact on assignees’ life in Doha. However, this crisis illustrates the volatility of the situation in the region and how it could unexpectedly affect expatriates, even in relatively safe locations.
Latin America
Spared by international conflict, the continent still faces serious governance and economic issues.
In Venezuela, the general economic collapse, hyperinflation, and lack of basic goods and services continue to fuel crimes and civil unrests.
The Mexican economy could suffer from a potential collapse of the NAFTA. The interdependency between the Mexican and the American economies mean that an absence of agreement between the two partners or a prolonged period of uncertainty could harm the Mexican economy and weaken the Mexican currency (as was briefly the case following the election of Donald Trump).
Asia
Despite the appeasement between North and South Korea during the Olympics games, the root causes of tension in the Korean peninsula have not been addressed and could quickly resurface.
The war in Afghanistan has been raging since 2001 and shows no sign of abating.
Filling the geopolitical vacuum, China’s growing assertiveness translates into new economic (new Silk Road vision), and political actions (construction of military facilities in the South China Sea). Some of these actions could put China at odds with its regional neighbors and the United States. The economic interdependencies between China and the United States don’t fully protect them from a trade war and from an accidental military escalation.
Europe
In Western Europe, difficult Brexit negotiations will continue to capture the headlines. While both the UK and the European Union has expressed preferences for an orderly Brexit, the content of the final agreement is still hard to predict. Even if European expatriates and British expatriates on the continent might retain a right to stay in the current country where they live, the devil might be in the details: international assignee could be impacted by pension issues, lack of access to benefits, and other restrictions. This uncertainty could also lead companies to have to manage an increase of self-requested moves – e.g. Europeans moving out of the UK, as well as job relocation by companies fearing they may lose access to the European markets.
At the borders of the European Union, a zone of tension and insecurity runs from the Baltics to the Balkans. The stalemate in Ukraine and the recent tension between Turkey and its NATO partners complete the picture of a continent under siege.
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